Fly on the Wall

The Kennox Advisory Panel meets every 6 months for a lively discussion on current topics impacting the investment landscape. The advisory panel is made up of Peter Hollis, Russell Napier and Angus Tulloch, together with the Kennox investment team.

 

May 2017

The advisory panel met against the backdrop of yet another looming election. As well as touching on a few of the usual questions (such as central bank actions and inflation versus deflation), topics of conversation included, but certainly weren’t limited to: the incredible growth rates of the technology majors; levels of consumer credit (high) [...]

November 2016

The panel met in the aftermath of Mr Trump’s US election victory, and to a degree we managed to keep conversation away from politics… Banks – opportunity or threat? The panel had a wide-ranging discussion on investing in banks. In summary: emerging markets are different to developed markets. In emerging, a great time to buy […]

June 2016

It should be noted that we met before the EU referendum, but are writing up these notes after the UK voted to leave. We can’t claim to have predicted the outcome of that vote, but the comments remain pertinent, and the subsequent performance of some of the sectors mentioned has been interesting. The discussion (unusually) […]

November 2015

The discussion began with the panel acknowledging that disruption continues to be the key issue. Everyone agreed that there are two key sources of excess competition on which analysts focus research, regardless of the specific stock opportunity: the internet and China. This has divided the market to a certain extent – into stocks considered at […]

April 2015

The discussion started with everyone agreeing that the investment environment was not easy at present with high prices for assets and significant risks. However, we have also all felt this has been the case for quite some time now. A good way of judging market exuberance is to collect anecdotes of the herd doing irrational […]

November 2014

On disruptive technology… Disruptive technology is pervasive, often (but not always) led by the internet. Consider the impact of Amazon on retailers, where the cost of running physical stores has made it almost impossible to compete directly on price with internet-only alternatives. Consider the impact of Google’s advertising model on traditional advertising strategies....

April 2014

As always, a few of the key thoughts from the discussion: How markets are defying gravity The markets continue to look unreasonably expensive considering the delicate economic climate in almost all regions. Companies also seem to be finding the environment tough, with more debt downgrades announced recently than at any time since the second quarter […]

November 2013

The panel flirted with various topics, and here is a taste of the key areas covered. Inflation or deflation We touched on this debate at the last panel with the conversation on Japanese quantitative easing, and the fact that the lower yen exchange rate has increased deflationary pressures as foreign countries import cheaper goods from […]

May 2013

The panel discussion danced around many and varied subjects, and as always, these notes are just a flavour of what was raised at the meeting. Japan So closely fought has been the recent race between global currencies to devalue that none have appeared to be very successful. That was until Japan entered the fray in […]

November 2012

Inflation, but when? The Panel believes that the risk of inflation in the US is now increasing. The Fed has continued with Quantitative Easing (QE) even though private bank lending is now increasing. This could very quickly lead to inflation. The Panel was not convinced that commodity stocks would be unreserved winners as they were […]